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2020年一季度全国楼市稳步回升，深圳率先复苏

2020-04-18 10:35 乐有家乐有家研究中心

全国楼市

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<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="font-size:16px;"><section data-role="paragraph" class="_135editor"><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">就在昨日，央行再次降息，同时下调存款准备金率1个百分点！首次释放资金2000亿。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: #c00000;">很多专家预计，接下来的4月20号，与房地产现息息相关的5年期LPR同样大概率也会跟随下调</span>。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">除了多次降准降息，在楼市方面，政府动作不断，放宽落户限制、人才购房免社保……</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">即使有着这样的背景，但面对XG这个“黑天鹅”，市场依旧“瑟瑟发抖”。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">2020年第一季度已过去，大家普遍关心的是，YQ下全国楼市表现如何？</p></section></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86516"><section class="_135editor" data-role="paragraph" data-color="#ef7060"><p><br/></p></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="88109"><section style="text-align: center; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"><section style="border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(117, 117, 118); display: inline-block; padding: 5px 20px;"><p style="color: #fefefe; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; color: #595959;" class="135brush" data-brushtype="text">全国楼市复苏，势不可挡</span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">据乐有家数据监控显示，随着各省市陆续恢复房地产中介线下带看业务，在可监控数据中，<span style="color: #c00000;">大部分城市3月的一手商品房成交规模普遍呈几何式增长。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">可见YQ对2月楼市的影响有多大。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">其中，重庆3月份一手住宅网签环比2月翻了140倍，涨幅超<span style="color: #C00000;"><strong>1000%</strong></span>的城市约有8个。成交量突破万套的有成都和南宁。</p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259254060613.png" data-ratio="1" alt="0.png" data-w="1" style="width:auto;"/><span style="font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体;"></span></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent:14px;line-height:150%"><br/></p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="86516"><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="88109"><section style="text-align: center; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"><section style="border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(117, 117, 118); display: inline-block; padding: 5px 20px;"><p style="color: #fefefe; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; color: #595959;" class="135brush" data-brushtype="text">四大一线城市中，深圳复苏最快</span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">3月YQ对市场影响走弱，全国楼市均逐步回归正轨。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">在北、上、广、深四大一线城市中，无论是一二手住宅，3月的成交量均涨势强劲。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">一手住宅成交涨幅最大的是上海，达370%，其次是广州。</p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259407047876.png" data-ratio="1" alt="1.png" data-w="1" style="width:auto;"/><span style="font-size: 14px; font-family: 宋体;"></span></p><p style="text-indent:28px"><br/></p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">二手住宅成交涨幅最大的是深圳，环比2月几乎翻了四番。但主要原因是YQ下2月成交量过低。</p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center; text-indent: 0em;"><img src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259456060172.png" data-ratio="1" alt="2.png" data-w="1" style="width:auto;"/></p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">一季度末，核心城市出现成交量倍增暴增的现象，<span style="color: #c00000;">这主要是因为现阶段新房供应量较少，受YQ影响的需求积压较多，成交一下子爆发。</span></p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">但是，这样的成交“报复性”激增不会长久，整体市场仍处于历史较低水平。</p></section></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="88109"><section style="text-align: center; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"><section style="border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(117, 117, 118); display: inline-block; padding: 5px 20px;"><p style="color: #fefefe; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 5px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; color: #595959;" class="135brush" data-brushtype="text">深圳依然最抗跌</span></p></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">按2020年第一季度来看，受YQ影响，一手住宅方面四大城市同比普跌。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">但深圳成交同比仅微跌1%，已接近去年同比水平，其余3个一线城市跌幅均超30%，其中北京跌幅最大，超4成。</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">二手住宅方面，深圳的成交量同比上涨65%，而其他3城均呈现下跌状态，北京上海跌幅超4成！</p><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">就一线城市而言，深圳恢复超预期，第一季度二手住宅成交1.7万套远超去年同期。</p></section></section></section></section><p><img src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259511038964.png" data-ratio="1" alt="数据图-07.png" data-w="1" style="width:auto;"/></p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif;">2020年第</span>一季度深圳楼市强势复苏，引领全国，最主要是由市场决定的。</p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97937"><section style="margin:10px 5px;text-align: center;"><section class="assistant" style="width: 30%; margin-left: 70%; border-bottom: 4px solid rgb(172, 29, 16); border-top-color: rgb(172, 29, 16); border-left-color: rgb(172, 29, 16); border-right-color: rgb(172, 29, 16);" data-width="30%"><section style="width: 20px; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"> 			<img class="assistant" style="width:100%;display:block;" src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259572050603.jpg" data-ratio="0.7435897435897436" data-w="78" data-width="100%"/></section></section><section style="border: 1px dashed rgb(172, 29, 16); color: rgb(172, 29, 16); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em;"><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; letter-spacing: 2px;">1、作为经济特区、粤港澳大湾区核心城市、世界地位比肩发达国家，未来发展前景广阔。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; letter-spacing: 2px;">2、其次，需求决定，深圳每年引进人口在全国排前列，数量达40多万，而在四大一线城市中，深圳的落户政策最为宽松，需求增多是必然的。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; letter-spacing: 2px;">3、除了人口持续流入，但与北上广杭等城市相比，深圳土地资源严重紧缺，开发率接近100%，没有土地增加住宅供应。需求增加，而供给有限，像住房这样的公共资源越来越紧缺。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; letter-spacing: 2px;">4、此外，今年3月份，M2（广义货币供应增速）重回两位数，达10.1%，说明央行的降准降息非常有效，市场货币量显著增加。而我们都知道中国楼市和货币有很大关系，虽然政策希望把资金引向实体经济，但不管怎么严防死守，也难免部分资金会流向楼市。</p></section></section><section class="assistant" style="text-align:left;margin-top:-18px;margin-left:-2px;"><section style="width:14px;display:inline-block;"><img class="assistant" style="width:100%;display:block;" src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259617066524.jpg" data-ratio="1.2379603399433428" data-w="353" data-width="100%"/></section></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em; caret-color: red;">如此一来，庞大的需求造就了深圳现在这样的成交量。</span><span style="text-indent: 0em; caret-color: red;"></span></p></section></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="88109"><section style="text-align: center; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"><section style="border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid rgb(117, 117, 118); display: inline-block; padding: 5px 20px;"><p style="color: #fefefe; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; color: #595959;" class="135brush" data-brushtype="text">湾区楼市</span></p></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;">除了四大一线城市，3月以来，2019年以来重点打造的粤港澳大湾区楼市也持续回暖。 </p></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align:center;line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="font-size: 14px; caret-color: red; font-family: 宋体;"><img src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259666020775.png" data-ratio="1" alt="3月大湾区楼市数据.png" data-w="1" style="width:auto;"/></span></p><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97706"><section style="margin:10px auto;"><section style="background-repeat: repeat; background-position: center center; background-image: url("http://image2.135editor.com/cache/remote/aHR0cHM6Ly9tbWJpei5xbG9nby5jbi9tbWJpel9wbmcvZmdua3hmR25ua1RkSlRRaWFpYmljUllFbjhsRmFrNUF6bmdNZGNkeFpGY3VmTnE0SmliUWU4Rzh4Z003WFlTZ2ZnSTBEakdsNnQ2YWR4eUl2TVFOaWNGeGliaWNBLzY0MD93eF9mbXQ9cG5n"); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="font-size: 14px;text-align: justify;letter-spacing: 1.5px;line-height: 1.75em;color: #333;"><section class="_135editor" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="97937"><section style="margin:10px 5px;text-align: center;"><section class="assistant" style="width: 30%; margin-left: 70%; border-bottom: 4px solid rgb(172, 29, 16); border-top-color: rgb(172, 29, 16); border-left-color: rgb(172, 29, 16); border-right-color: rgb(172, 29, 16);" data-width="30%"><section style="width: 20px; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;"> 			<img class="assistant" style="width:100%;display:block;" src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259572050603.jpg" data-ratio="0.7435897435897436" data-w="78" data-width="100%"/></section></section><section style="border: 1px dashed rgb(172, 29, 16); color: rgb(172, 29, 16); padding: 1em;"><section data-autoskip="1" class="135brush" style="text-align: justify; line-height: 1.75em;"><p style="line-height: 2em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 15px;">综合以上数据表明，2020年第1季度全国楼市稳步回暖已是事实。未来，在“房住不炒”的基调下，各大城市楼市还将继续平稳发展。</p></section></section><section class="assistant" style="text-align:left;margin-top:-18px;margin-left:-2px;"><section style="width:14px;display:inline-block;"> 			<img class="assistant" style="width:100%;display:block;" src="/ueditor/jsp/upload/image/20200418/1587177259617066524.jpg" data-ratio="1.2379603399433428" data-w="353" data-width="100%"/></section></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 2em; letter-spacing: 2px; text-indent: 0em; margin-bottom: 15px;"><br/></p></section></section></section></section></section><section class="_135editor" data-role="paragraph"><p><br/></p></section></section><p><br/></p>